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2 edition of Political instability and inflation volatility found in the catalog.

Political instability and inflation volatility

Ari Aisen

Political instability and inflation volatility

  • 198 Want to read
  • 17 Currently reading

Published by International Monetary Fund, Asia and Pacific Dept. in Washington, D.C .
Written in English

    Subjects:
  • Inflation (Finance) -- Econometric models.,
  • Political stability -- Economic aspects -- Econometric models.

  • About the Edition

    The purpose of this paper is to empirically determine the causes of worldwide diversity of inflation volatility. We show that higher degrees of political instability, ideological polarization, and political fragmentation are associated with higher inflation volatility.

    Edition Notes

    Statementprepared by Ari Aisen and Francisco José Veiga.
    SeriesIMF working paper -- WP/06/212
    ContributionsVeiga, Francisco José., International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept.
    The Physical Object
    Pagination9 p. :
    ID Numbers
    Open LibraryOL21448061M

    In this study, Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) models are used to determine the impacts of exchange rate volatility on industrial production growth rate, consumer price inflation, short-term interest rates and stock returns for 10 OECD countries. The variance decompositions (VDCs) found that exchange rate volatility . This is “Food Cost and Inflation”, section from the book An commodity prices rose sharply in as crop production shortfalls led to reduced supplies and a higher volatility in agricultural markets. and the increased population, along with poverty and political instability.


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Political instability and inflation volatility by Ari Aisen Download PDF EPUB FB2

Political instability leads to higher inflation volatility. In a recent study, Rother () concludes that volatility in discretionary fiscal policies has contributed to inflation volatility in a panel of 15 OECD File Size: KB.

Furthermore, political instability has greater effects on inflation volatility in developing countries with lower degrees of central bank independence and economic freedom. Discover the world's. The purpose of this paper is to empirically determine the causes of worldwide diversity of inflation volatility.

We show that higher degrees of political instability, ideological polarization, and political fragmentation are associated with higher inflation volatility. The purpose of this paper is to empirically analyze the effects of political instability, social polarization and the quality of institutions on inflation volatility over time and across countries.

Furthermore, political instability has greater effects on inflation volatility in developing countries with lower degrees of central bank independence and economic freedom.

This is a preview Cited by:   This paper investigates whether political instability leads to volatile inflation using a panel of 49 African countries. The study uses novel measures of political instability, particularly the state failure index and state fragility index.

In the field of political instability and inflation volatility, this is the first study to measure inflation volatility as the conditional variance of inflation Cited by: 6.

We show that higher degrees of political instability, ideological polarization and political fragmentation are associated with higher inflation volatility. The purpose of this paper is to empirically determine the causes of the worldwide diversity of inflation volatility.

The study uses novel measures of political instability, particularly the state failure index and state fragility index. In the field of political instability and inflation volatility, this is the first study to measure inflation volatility as the conditional variance of inflation Cited by: 6.

inflation t o political instability would be related to the costs of inflation and to the responsibility hypothesis, according to which, people hold governments responsible for economic outcomes.

Keywords: Inflation, volatility, political instability, institutions Author(s) E-Mail Address: [email protected]; [email protected] 1 The authors wish to thank Carlos Végh, Henry Chappell. Political Instability, Political Weakness and Inflation: An Empirical Analysis Sebastian Edwards, Guido Tabellini.

NBER Working Paper No. Issued in May NBER Program(s):International Trade and Investment, International Finance and Macroeconomics In this paper we analyze empirically the most important implications of two family political economy models of inflation.

focuses on the effect of political instability on economic growth in the CEE transition countries over the last two decades. Political instability in this region, reflected in relatively frequent government.

causality and the measurement of political instability. On the direction of causality, we consider the hypothesis that political instability causes slower economic growth and the hypothesis that both political instability.

Political instability and inflation volatility lower de facto central bank independence lead to higher inflation volatility. We also show that political instability has a larger impact on inflation volatility.

Abstract. The purpose of this paper is to empirically determine the causes of the worldwide diversity of inflation volatility. We show that higher degrees of political instability, ideological polarization and political fragmentation are associated with higher inflation ion, volatility, political instability Author: Ari Aisen and Francisco José Veiga.

POLITICAL INSTABILITY A MAJOR OBSTACLE TO ECONOMIC GROWTH IN BANGLADESH Instructor Birgitta Niemi Pages 31+3 Supervisor Birgitta Niemi This article examined the relationship of political instability and Economic growth of Bangladesh.

Political stability. Their results show that all four factors of political instability are positively related to growth volatility, but only regime instability and government instability have a significant effect. There are several reasons why political instability may affect economic volatility.

Downloadable (with restrictions). The purpose of this paper is to empirically determine the causes of the worldwide diversity of inflation volatility. We show that higher degrees of political instability, ideological polarization and political fragmentation are associated with higher inflation volatility.

Get this from a library. Political instability and inflation volatility. [Ari Aisen; Francisco José Veiga] -- The purpose of this paper is to empirically determine the causes of worldwide diversity of inflation volatility.

We show that higher degrees of political instability. Controlling Inflation and Stabilising an Economy Methods used to counteract heavy speculation and financial instability includes information transparency. Ferreira de Mendonca and Filho discuss increasing information transparency as implying a fall in inflation bias and inflation volatility.

inflation, we find that political instability leads to higher and more volatile inflation. Furthermore, the impact of political instability on inflation levels and volatilities is much stronger for high inflation than for moderate and low inflation File Size: KB. Turkish Banking: Banking Under Political Instability and Chronic High Inflation (Palgrave Macmillan Studies in Banking and Financial Institutions) [Altunbas, Y., Kara, A., Olgu, Ö.] on *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers.

Turkish Banking: Banking Under Political Instability and Chronic High Inflation Cited by: 5. determinants of inflation levels and volatility.

After controlling for the countries’ economic structure and for the behavior of economic variables that may influence inflation, we find that political instability leads to higher and more volatile inflation. Furthermore, the impact of political instability on inflation.

CiteSeerX - Document Details (Isaac Councill, Lee Giles, Pradeep Teregowda): The purpose of this paper is to empirically determine the causes of the worldwide diversity of inflation volatility.

We show that higher degrees of political instability, ideological polarization and political fragmentation are associated with higher inflation volatility. This paper argues that the influence of political factors has been overstated. The majority of events increasing political uncertainty had little or no effect on the value of German assets and the volatility of returns on them.

Instead, it was inflation. Internally, political volatility was set to persist irrespective of the outcome of the April referendum on presidential powers. This is due to a constant ‘election mode’ mentality and the entrenched political. The majority of events increasing political uncertainty had little or no effect on the value of German assets and the volatility of returns on them.

Instead, it was inflation (and the fear of it) that is largely responsible for most of the variability in asset ion, stock returns, volatility of asset returns, political Author: Hans Joachim Voth. Stability in Canada's Output, and Why It Matters. All economies display fluctuations in the growth rate of aggregate output.

These fluctuations are often referred to as business cycles, even though they rarely exhibit the smoothness and regularity suggested by the term. We have discussed why the Bank of Canada focuses on maintaining low and stable inflation. This paper elaborates upon the effect of political stability on economic growth using a novel approach.

Unlike the literature on growth that emphasizes the turnover of decision makers, this paper focuses on the volatility of economic policies as the relevant indicator of stability.

The literature on growth ignores the microeconomic instability Cited by: Studies that examine the effect of political institutions on economic volatility usually choose political indicators in a rather arbitrary way.

For example, Mobarak () takes anti-government demonstrations and external war to represent political by: Khan S.U., Saqib O.F., (), “Political instability and inflation in Pakistan” Journal of Asian Economics (8 September ) Kim H.Y., and Mei J.P., () “What makes the stock market jump.

An analysis of political Author: Hira Irshad. Political instability, political weakness and inflation. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, [] (OCoLC) Material Type: Internet resource: Document Type: Book.

paper shows that a higher degree of political instability is associated with higher inflation. The paper also draws relevant policy implications for the optimal design of inflation stabilization programs and of the institutions favorable to price stability.

Keywords: Inflation, volatility, political instability. the effects of exchange rate volatility on the inflation rate in kenya by jane nungari ng’ang’a a research project submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the award of the degree of master of.

In a recent article, one of us (David Brady) shows the correlation between rising political instability and declining economic performance, pointing out that countries with below-average economic performance have experienced the most electoral volatility.

More specifically, such instability. The effect of economic policy and political uncertainty on stock market performance in United Kingdom shows that the increase in uncertainty could reduce the stock market performance. However, in United States, the stock market performance does not seem to be influenced by economic policy and political.

In this study, panel vector autoregression (PVAR) models are employed to examine the relationships between industrial production growth rate, consumer price inflation, short-term interest rates, stock returns and exchange rate volatility Author: Oguzhan Ozcelebi.

Institutional causes, macroeconomic symptoms: volatility, and a high degree of political instability. There is no evidence that inflation matters for volatility in the full sample of former colonies, either Cited by: One common set is inflation ex-food and energy, which is often called “core inflation”.

In classical political economy, “inflation” referred to government policy itself: inflation meant increasing the. stability,we look at the behavior of macroeconomic outcome variables including the growth of real out-put, the rate of inflation, and the current account focuses on the volatility of the growth rate and the levels of inflation File Size: KB.

How Does Cabinet Instability Affect Political Performance? Portfolio Volatility and Health Care Cost Containment in Parliamentary Democracies - Volume 92 Issue 3 - John D.

HuberCited by: The high inflation volatility in Indonesia creates greater uncertainty in forecasting inflation, resulting in a relatively higher inflation risk premium. Term premium estimates quantify the compensation investors require, in addition to what they require for expected inflation, for their relative inability to predict inflation.Using the system GMM estimator and data on economic, political and institutional variables from to for economies [12] find that severe degrees of political instability and low level of democracy and institutional development contribute to volatility of inflation Cited by: 1.